Guide
How rarity works
Every answer in Moonshot Daily Game lands in an orbit, from Low Orbit for the answers nearly everyone gives out to Uncharted for the ones almost nobody does. The orbit decides what an answer pays in Lone Star and whether it hits the call in Target Orbit. This guide explains exactly how that orbit is worked out, with a real example from the answers archive.
Step 1: our estimate
Every answer on a category's list starts with an estimate of how often people would say it, on a scale from 0 to 100. On the language list, English starts at 85 and Spanish at 80. Swahili starts at 8, Haitian Creole at 1.5 and Sorbian at 0.03. These numbers are our best guess before anyone has played, and they are only a starting point.
Step 2: the day's real answers
Every finished flight sends back the answers its player gave. For each category and each day we count how many players answered it, and how many of them gave each answer. An answer's popularity then blends the two sources:
popularity = (estimate ÷ 100 × 30 + players who gave it) ÷ (30 + players who answered the category)
In plain words, our estimate counts as if 30 players had already answered. With 30 real players, our estimate and the players carry equal weight. With 300, our estimate is down to about a tenth of the result, and after a thousand it barely matters. The more people play a category, the more its orbits show what players really say.
Step 3: compare with the No. 1 answer
Popularity on its own isn't the orbit. What matters is how an answer compares with the most popular answer in the same category, so a wide category like Name a video game and a narrow one like Name a bone in the human body are judged on the same scale. Each answer's popularity is divided by the No. 1 answer's, and the result picks the orbit:
| Orbit | Share of the No. 1 answer | Lone Star points |
|---|---|---|
| Low Orbit | 30% or more | 10 |
| High Orbit | 10% up to 30% | 25 |
| Deep Space | 3.5% up to 10% | 45 |
| Outer Rim | 1% up to 3.5% | 65 |
| Uncharted | under 1% | 85 |
The No. 1 answer is always Low Orbit. An answer has to be at least 30% as popular as the No. 1 answer to join it there, and anything under 1% of it is Uncharted.
A worked example: Swahili on October 22
On October 22, 2026, the Hive Mind / Lone Star category was Name a language. 1,754 players answered it.
- English was the No. 1 answer: 1,743 players gave it. Its popularity is (0.85 × 30 + 1,743) ÷ (30 + 1,754) = 1,768.5 ÷ 1,784 ≈ 0.991.
- Swahili was given by 330 players. Its popularity is (0.08 × 30 + 330) ÷ 1,784 = 332.4 ÷ 1,784 ≈ 0.186.
- Swahili's share of English is 0.186 ÷ 0.991 ≈ 18.8%. That is above 10% and below 30%, so Swahili finished the day in High Orbit.
Before anyone played, Swahili's share was only 9.4% (8 against English's 85), which is Deep Space. Players thought of it far more often than we expected, and it moved one orbit closer. Haitian Creole moved two: we had it in Outer Rim, and 220 players put it in High Orbit.
It works the other way too. We estimated German at 55, well inside Low Orbit. Only 67 of the 1,754 players said it, which works out at (0.55 × 30 + 67) ÷ 1,784 ≈ 0.047, or 4.7% of English. German finished in Deep Space. It is an answer everyone knows and few people think of when asked to name a language, which is exactly what the game measures.
Why orbits can shift while you play
Rarity is worked out from the answers counted so far that day. Early in the day, when few people have played, our estimates still carry most of the weight. As the day goes on, the real answers take over, so an answer can drift an orbit nearer or farther before the day ends. Your score uses rarity as it stood when you played. The archive shows where every answer finished once the day was over, and that is the final word.
Counts never carry over from one day to the next. If a category comes back in the future, it starts again from our estimates.
Supernova answers are different
Each category also hides five Supernova answers: real, little-known answers we pick by hand. They always pay 110 in Lone Star, however many players find them, because they are set before the day starts. On October 22, 42 players found Basque and it still paid 110 to each of them. In Target Orbit a Supernova answer counts as the outermost orbit, Uncharted.
What counts as an answer
An answer only scores if it is on the category's list. Each entry carries its common spellings, alternative names and nicknames, and the game forgives small typos: one wrong letter in a word of 4 to 6 letters, two in 7 to 13 letters, three in longer ones, as long as the start sounds right. When a typo match is a guess, the game asks you to confirm it. Plurals, capitals and words like "the" are ignored.
If you give a real answer the list doesn't have yet, it scores nothing that day, but it is logged anonymously and we review those logs by hand. That is how answers such as Rohingya joined the language list.
Using rarity to score more
Knowing how orbits are decided changes how you play. The No. 1 answer sets the scale for everything else, and "rare-sounding" answers that many players reach for, like Swahili, end up nearer than they look. The strategy guide turns this into tips for each round, and how to play has the full rules.